WHAT PEOPLE ASK
BEFORE THEY TRY IT.
Short answers. If something here is unclear, that is a fault in the answer rather than in the question.
What is Settle It?
Settle It records a disagreement between two people so it can be checked later. Each side writes what they think will happen and how sure they are out of 100, and you pick a date. On that date a permanent public Receipt publishes itself showing both positions, both confidence numbers and who turned out to be right.
Question 1 of 12Do I need an account to use Settle It?
No. Creating a Settle, joining one, reading a Receipt and playing the daily calibration test all work with no account at all. An account is only needed for your private ledger, which scores every prediction you have made over time.
Question 2 of 12What happens on the date a Settle resolves?
Both people are emailed and asked whether it happened. Once it is resolved the Receipt publishes at a public URL that neither person can edit or delete. If nobody responds, one follow-up reminder is sent three days later and then no more.
Question 3 of 12Can I delete a Receipt if I was wrong?
No, and that is the entire point. A Receipt cannot be edited or deleted by either party once it publishes. A prediction you can quietly bury is not a prediction, so the product removes the burying.
Question 4 of 12Why does the confidence slider start at 50 instead of 0?
Because below 50% is not a weak version of your claim, it is the opposite claim. Saying you are 30% sure something will happen is saying you are 70% sure it will not, which is a different prediction. The scale runs 50 to 100, where 50 is a coin flip and 100 is staking your name on it.
Question 5 of 12What is a calibration score, and how is it different from being right?
Calibration measures whether your confidence means anything, not whether you win arguments. A well-calibrated person is right about 70% of the time when they say 70%. You can be badly calibrated while winning most arguments, and well calibrated while losing plenty — they are separate skills, and only one of them is worth measuring.
Question 6 of 12What is a Brier score?
A Brier score is the standard measure of forecast accuracy: lower is better, zero is perfect, and 0.25 is what you get by calling everything a coin flip. Professional superforecasters land near 0.166. It cannot be gamed by hedging, because answering 50% to everything scores badly too.
Question 7 of 12What is the daily test?
Ten true-or-false statements with a confidence number on each, taking about sixty seconds. Everybody gets the same ten that day. At the end it shows how often you were actually right at each confidence level, which is the fastest way to find out whether your certainty tracks reality.
Question 8 of 12Can I settle something with someone who has never heard of Settle It?
Yes. You send them a link, they write their side and their number, and they are done — no account, no app to install. Their confidence stays hidden from you until you have both committed, so neither side can anchor on the other.
Question 9 of 12How much does Settle It cost?
Creating and joining Settles, Receipts, the daily test and your calibration score are free permanently and need no account. One paid plan, A$8.99 a month, adds your whole ledger rather than the most recent 20 resolved claims, and 100 counter-arguments a month instead of 2. New accounts get the whole ledger for 7 days without a card. All prices are in Australian dollars and include GST.
Question 10 of 12What if we disagree about who was right?
Each side records their own verdict, and one of the outcomes is that it was ambiguous. A claim that cannot be settled cleanly is recorded as unsettled rather than forced into a winner, and ambiguous results are excluded from your calibration score instead of being counted as half right.
Question 11 of 12Is Settle It a betting or gambling app?
No. There is no money at stake, no odds, no payouts and nothing to win. The only thing recorded is what each person predicted and how sure they were, so the outcome is a public record rather than a wager.
Question 12 of 12