- 01
One number: the Brier score
Lower is better, and it punishes confident mistakes far harder than uncertain ones. It is the standard measure for forecasts and it cannot be gamed by hedging, because saying 50% to everything scores badly too.
- 02
The curve says where you are wrong
Your claims grouped by how sure you were, against how often you were actually right at that level. Most people’s curve sags in one specific band, and until you see it you have no idea which one.
- 03
Your record against each person
Win, loss and draw against everyone you have settled something with, oldest rivalry first. Sport has had head-to-head records forever and prediction has had none — and it is the one thing a private forecasting log can never show you, because there is nobody on the other side of it.
- 04
It says how many were witnessed
A claim you type in here is your own word, graded by you — same as every other tracker. A claim that came from a Settle had a named person take the opposite side, agree the terms before reality answered, and a public Receipt neither of you can edit. The ledger tells you which of yours are which, because the difference is the whole point.
- 05
It scores the number you finished on
If you read the case against your own claim and change your mind, the revised number is what gets scored — the original stays visible underneath. It also tracks how far you move on average, which is a virtue nothing else here measures. Scoring the first number would punish exactly the behaviour this product exists to cause.
- 06
Settles land here automatically
Anything you settle while signed in enters your ledger in your own frame, and the verdict flows back when it resolves. You do not maintain two lists.
